Game 3 preview

Crucial game for Edmonton here. Are the Oilers a legitimate contender or just a good team that got hot at the right time? If the Oilers lose tomorrow, the series is over for all intents and purposes. Carolina has won their last eight playoff games in Canada (five coming in Montreal, three in Toronto) and is 5-3 on the road this post-season (1 loss in New Jersey, 2 losses in Buffalo).

Why are the Oilers struggling so much? Roloson gave the team a lot of confidence, but he doesn't score their goals. Since 17:17 of the second period in game 1 (62:43), the Canes have outscored the Oilers 10-1. The confidence is a problem and, like I said in my game 2 recap, it is causing them to try too hard.

Personally, I think the problem is twofold. One, the Canadian media began lavishing this team with overwhelming amounts of praise. They're a young team and only one player has actually played in the Finals (Peca). They began to believe the hype. From what I've seen of them, they get the majority of their goals from effort and hard work. All of a sudden, they started acting like a run and gun team with three lines of skilled forwards. They're not. Edmonton put up three goals early in game 1 because they were outworking the Canes, not because they were more skilled than the Canes. The only forward I've seen that worries me as much as Briere, Dumont, Drury, Elias, or Kovalev is Ales Hemsky.

The second reason is respect. This is also tied to the media, especially in Canada, who made comments about how "The Canes are the worst team they'll [the Oilers] have played in the post season" and how the Oilers would wipe Carolina off the map. The fact of the matter is that, all season long, the Canes have been one of the top teams. They've had their injuries and dealt with it, they've had their slumps and dealt with it.

It comes down to this in the end. The Hurricanes are a more skilled offensive team than Edmonton. We've seen after two games that the Canes are more willing to sacrifice themselves for the team. Blocked shots is the easy statistic to compare, something many pundits and experts around the league said that Edmonton did and the Hurricanes did not.

If the Hurricanes put in the effort to match Edmonton, their superior skill will win out. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. So be it. That's how I see it though, and that's why this series doesn't go more than five games.

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Some stats and notes:

• Georges Laraque will not be suspended, as per rule 28g trumping rule 44c. Will the refs be keeping their eyes on him though? I think he's on thin ice and needs to be extra careful. Anything marginal will probably go against him.
  
• The Brind'Amour line (Brind'Amour, Williams, Stillman) is a combined +36 and has totalled 55 points in the post season. They are also our primary checking line, which makes it a tough matchup for Peca's line and Pronger.
  
• After two games, Edmonton's #1 penalty kill is now the #3 PK in the playoffs. The Hurricanes have climbed to #6. Carolina has scored as many goals on Edmonton's power play as the Oilers have. Both Carolina power play units have enough guns to take advantage of when the top penalty killers are not on the ice.
  
• Carolina's average playoff goal differential is 0.8 (3.20GF-2.40GA), the best in the league. Edmonton is seventh with 0.32 (3.05GF-2.74GA) after Carolina, Ottawa, New Jersey, Buffalo, Anaheim, and Montreal. All three of Carolina's previous opponents are rated higher than the Oilers.
  
• Many outside observers noted that Edmonton players keep looking for "the perfect shot" against Ward, a sure sign that he may be in their head. Carolina is blocking a lot of shots, so look for the Oilers to try to throw it on net at any opportunity (the same tactic the Canes used against Miller, Brodeur, and Huet to great success).