Congrats to the Ducks

I had the number of games, just not the right team. Anyway, the Cup is no longer ours and good luck to Anaheim in defending it. I caught the first two periods live before I had to go to my own hockey game. One of my teammates managed to break his leg in two places (clean break of the fibula and tibia). Not fun.

How does anyone not like hockey?

I was nominally cheering for the Sens last night, although I was tense the entire game and let out a cheer for every goal scored, including Moen's eventual game winner. Anaheim surprised me by really controlling play at even strength and Ottawa's power play was impressive as usual. Anaheim takes lots of penalties, so it may come down to Ottawa's power play scoring enough to beat the Ducks at even strength. Strange game, but lots of fun.

And then there were two...

Ottawa and Anaheim. I expected for Ottawa to beat Buffalo, but not quite as quickly. The Anaheim series was about what I expected, so it comes down to the series I was looking forward to. In the end, I think Ottawa is peaking at the right time. They really look great and I think they will carry their momentum into their first championship*, bringing the Cup back to Canada. I will continue with the Ottawa pattern and have them winning in 5. I'll even root for them, as I did with them against Buffalo.

Stanley Cup Finals
Anaheim (2W) vs Ottawa (4E) - Ottawa in 5

* Any "championships" earned by a previous incarnation of a team calling itself the "Ottawa Senators" do not count. They're not the same team. I got into an argument/discussion about this before with someone, I don't remember who.

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Eastern Conference Finals
Buffalo (1) vs Ottawa (4) - Ottawa in 7 5

Western Conference Finals
Detroit (1) vs Anaheim (2) - Anaheim in 7 6

NBC/Game 5

I've held off so far in discussing the NBC Debacle with Game 5 of the Sens/Sabres series. I was watching the game with the sound off at a friend's house and just guessed that the game was on Versus after we noticed horses instead of hockey, so we all were able to catch Alfie's game winner.

The NHL has to be better than this. NBC is all about the ratings, which is all well and good, but if they're going to dump your sport for fucking horses, then they're out. No more hockey for NBC. Period. Go online, invest money in Versus to make it on every cable system in the nation, make Center Ice free - something! Anything!

Personally, I wouldn't mind getting some of the Canadian stations on our cable package. I would much rather watch Hockey Night in Canada than Versus anyway. If anything else, NBC needs to be booted.

What the hell?

What in the world is happening to Buffalo? Ottawa is owning them and the Sabres seem to be hardly mustering the effort to fight back. Without Miller in net last night, the score could have been 6-0.

Playoff Picks - Round 3

The Conference Finals are upon us. I just got back from vacation this past weekend, so I'm still catching up on everything. All in all, my picks for the Semifinals weren't too bad. The Conference Finals are a little too close to call in both series, so I'll take a random stab at it.

Eastern Conference Finals
Buffalo (1) vs Ottawa (4) - Ottawa in 7

Western Conference Finals
Detroit (1) vs Anaheim (2) - Anaheim in 7

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Eastern Conference Semifinals
Buffalo (1) vs NY Rangers (6) - Buffalo in 6
New Jersey (2) vs Ottawa (4) - Ottawa in 6 5

Western Conference Semifinals
Detroit (1) vs San Jose (5) - San Jose Detroit in 6
Anaheim (2) vs Vancouver (3) - Anaheim in 5

Playoff Picks - Round 2

OK, five out of eight isn't so bad. The only series I got completely was Buffalo in 5, everything else being an unmitigated mess. I'll try to do better this round.

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Buffalo (1) vs NY Rangers (6) - Buffalo in 6
New Jersey (2) vs Ottawa (4) - Ottawa in 6

Western Conference Semifinals
Detroit (1) vs San Jose (5) - San Jose in 6
Anaheim (2) vs Vancouver (3) - Anaheim in 5

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Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Buffalo (1) vs Ny Islanders (8) - Buffalo in 5
New Jersey (2) vs Tampa (7) - Tampa New Jersey in 7 6
Atlanta (3) vs NY Rangers (6) - NY Rangers in 6 4
Ottawa (4) vs Pittsburgh (5) - Pittsburgh Ottawa in 6 5

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Detroit (1) vs Calgary (8) - Calgary Detroit in 7 6
Anaheim (2) vs Minnesota (7) - Anaheim in 6 5
Vancouver (3) vs Dallas (6) - Vancouver in 5 7
Nashville (4) vs San Jose (5) - San Jose in 6 5

Ice Hawks 4, Stars 2

We rebounded well in the "consolation bracket" by winning a surprisingly tight game against the Stars. They have steadily progressed this season and should be pretty tough next season. My pre-season goal has almost been realized - I took the team lead in points after chasing Bruce all season. We've been tied for the past month, but I finally pulled ahead with one game left to go. I know it's kind of silly, but I set a goal for myself at the start of the season and it's kept me focused.

We broke down defensively for a short span of the second period, where the Stars took the lead. That lasted less than three minutes as Flood tied the game, followed shortly after by my go-ahead goal. I should have had a third goal, as I had plenty of opportunities - the best being a short-handed breakaway - but their goalie stood up to the pressure nicely. Our normal goalie decided to skate out this game, which was kind of funny. He's obviously not used to it, but he managed to get an assist out of the ordeal.

Game Details

Scoring	1	2	3	Total
Ice Hawks	1	2	1	4
Stars	0	2	0	2

Shots on goal

Ice Hawks	31
Stars	18

Scoring Summary
Period 1
Ice Hawks - Chris Caran (Dan Smyrski) , 1:15

Period 2
The Stars - Chris Tilly (Jeff Kimbrough) , 5:15
The Stars - Chris Tilly (Errol Binda) , 6:25
Ice Hawks - Chris Flood (Brian Shaw, Dan Smyrski) , 8:05
Ice Hawks - Chris Caran (Dan Smyrski) , 11:40

Period 3
Ice Hawks - Bruce Borer (Chris Ellis) , 0:10

Penalties
Period 1
The Stars - Jeff Kimbrough - (Holding Minor), 2 min , 2:50
The Stars - Scott Corcoran - (Roughing Minor), 2 min , 5:45
Ice Hawks - Matthew Leech - (Tripping Minor), 2 min , 8:30
Ice Hawks - Dan Smyrski - (Roughing Minor), 2 min , 16:19
The Stars - Michael Rumpf - (Interference Minor), 2 min , 19:29

Period 2
Ice Hawks - Brian Shaw - (Hooking Minor), 2 min , 17:47

Period 3
Ice Hawks - Dan Smyrski - (Tripping Minor), 2 min , 2:16
Ice Hawks - Matthew Leech - (Hooking Minor), 2 min , 17:52

We're off to see the wizard

Whitney re-signed for three years for around $3.55 millon per. That was quick. He mentioned that it was the easiest negotiation he had been involved with and he probably could have done it without his agent. That's always nice to hear.

I've been watching as many playoff games as possible in the meantime. When the Canes aren't directly involved, I find that I develop my favorites somewhat organically. I watch several games and discover who I am cheering for. I was cheering for Vancouver and Pittsburgh so far. That's not to say those are my Finals picks, but those are the teams I have been pulling for. I'm watching Buffalo and the Islanders right now and I haven't quite picked one yet; the same goes for the Rangers and Thrasher - my heart's just not in it. I have a soft spot for Nashville, so I'll be keeping an eye on their series with San Jose too.

Blades 4 Ice Hawks 1

Well, our playoff aspirations were short lived. You can tell by the shot count that it wasn't really as close as the score would indicate, although we had several chances that we couldn't quite convert on. It could have been a closer game. I got the only goal for our side - I picked up a rebound in the slot and popped it over the sprawling goalie.

Game Details

Scoring	1	2	3	Total
Blades	3	0	1	4
Ice Hawks	1	0	0	1

Shots on goal

Blades	46
Ice Hawks	13

Scoring Summary
Period 1
Blades - Paul Silveira (David Irons) , 2:30
Blades - Josh Richmond (Matthew Houpt) , 13:53
Blades - John Chang (Paul Silveira) , 16:05
Ice Hawks - Chris Caran (Matt Casulli, Bruce Borer) , 17:10

Period 2
(No scoring)

Period 3
Blades - Brian Jones (Tom Vislocky) , 4:50

Penalties
Period 1
(No penalties)

Period 2
Blades - Brian Jones - (Hooking Minor), 2 min , 7:15
Blades - Paul Silveira - (Elbowing Minor), 2 min , 14:23
Ice Hawks - Joe Rizza - (Interference Minor), 2 min , 19:22

Period 3
Ice Hawks - Matthew Leech - (Hooking Minor), 2 min , 9:06

Playoff Picks - Round 1

Eastern Conference
Buffalo (1) vs Ny Islanders (8) - Buffalo in 5
New Jersey (2) vs Tampa (7) - Tampa in 7
Atlanta (3) vs NY Rangers (6) - NY Rangers in 6
Ottawa (4) vs Pittsburgh (5) - Pittsburgh in 6

Western Conference
Detroit (1) vs Calgary (8) - Calgary in 7
Anaheim (2) vs Minnesota (7) - Anaheim in 6
Vancouver (3) vs Dallas (6) - Vancouver in 5
Nashville (4) vs San Jose (5) - San Jose in 6

And we're done

Well fought game - they tried their best, but it wasn't good enough. At least my tickets for next season are paid for.

Revised scenario

We have to take everything into account to determine our real chances; most importantly, tie breakers. Atlanta has actually clinched, despite no official designation. If they dropped their last three games and Toronto won their last three, they would be tied with 41 wins. Atlanta gained more points in the head-to-heads, so they win that tie-breaker and are in.

Solid
NY Rangers - Four points ahead and winning the tie-breaker against Toronto with 3 to play. The magic number for them is 2. It would take a complete meltdown for them not to make it.

Strong
Tampa Bay Lightning - Three points up with three to play. It gets a bit more dicey for the Bolts. They also have the tie-breaker over the Leafs, so their magic number is 3. Their last three are against the Canes, Panthers, and Thrashers. It's not out of the realm of possibility for them to lose their last three - the Canes are desperate, the Panthers are playing very well, and Atlanta is headed into the franchise's first post-season appearance and want to do well.

The Scrum
Montreal Canadiens - One point up with three to go, they are in the thick of it. They play Boston, the Rangers, and Toronto to close the season. Their biggest advantage? The large number of wins is the first tie-breaker.

Toronto Maple Leafs - One point back (effectively two) with three to go. They play Philly, the Isles, and Les Habs to finish the season. Their low win total is a liability for tie-breakers, so they need to win the spot outright.

Carolina Hurricanes - Two points back (effectively three), three games to go. They also lose the main tie-breaker with Montreal, so they need to get three more points than the Canadiens and two more than the Leafs to qualify. They finish with Tampa, Atlanta, and Florida. The win last night gave them a burst of life that will hopefully become a win streak. They still need some help. Luckily, the two teams they are chasing play head-to-head to finish the season. It may come down to that.

NY Islanders - Four points down, four to go. They face the Rangers, Toronto, Philly, and New Jersey. That's no easy path and they're already in a tailspin because of their goalie situation. They need wins and help.

A pulse

Going into the third period tonight, the Canes were on their last leg. Down 3-1 with no chance of anything. A short handed goal by Brind'Amour followed by the game-tying goal by Rosie gave the team a burst of life they exploited in overtime with a rare 5-on-3 power-play. Unlike every other power play this team has squandered in the past few games, Whitney came up big and got the all-important two points. To make things even nicer, the Rangers smoked Toronto tonight.

3. Atlanta (93 pts, 3 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. NY Rangers (91 pts, 3 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
7. Tampa Bay (90 pts, 3 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
8. Montreal (88pts, 3 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
9. Toronto (87pts, 3 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON
10. Carolina (86pts, 3 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
11. NY Islanders (84pts, 4 GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ

Minor miracle required

I've been out of town so I haven't been able to update. I missed the game Friday, selling the tickets to the neighbors of a co-worker. I found out that the Canes lost late on Friday, pretty much crippling any chance they have to get into the playoffs. It would essentially require them to win out and have both Montreal and Toronto lose the majority of their games. Considering Montreal and Toronto end the season against each other, we know at least one of them will gain two points. That has to be the only win essentially, regardless of who it is. They're as officially done as they can be without being officially done. The crazy thing is that we've moved up from 11th to 10th thanks to the Islanders.

The "miracle" scenario: The Rangers win their next three against Toronto, the Islanders, and Montreal; Montreal loses out, Toronto loses everything except the last game versus Montreal, leaving them at 89 points and 39 wins. Carolina then needs to pick up 5 points in their last 4 games with at least two victories (giving them the tie-breaker).

The "minor miracle" scenario: The Rangers win their next three (95 points), Montreal wins 1 of 3 (90 points, 91 with an OTL), Toronto no more than 2 of 4 (91 points), Carolina wins out (92 points), the Islanders lose at least 1 of 4 (no more than 91 points).

As you can see, neither scenario is particularly likely.

3. Atlanta (93 pts, 3 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. Tampa Bay (90 pts, 3 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
7. NY Rangers (89 pts, 4 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
8. Montreal (88pts, 3 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
9. Toronto (87pts, 4 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON
10. Carolina (84pts, 4 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
11. NY Islanders (84pts, 4 GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ

Dying of the light

Things look pretty bleak. The team is not dead, especially with so many head-to-head matchups against division rivals remaining, but last night's embarassment against Philadelphia certainly didn't help matters. Atlanta picked up a point and the Canes are now down to 11th because of games in hand to teams above them.

I only saw the first period and a snapshot of the second (when Philly scored goal #2) as I had a game of my own last night.

3. Atlanta (89pts, 5 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. NY Rangers (87pts, 5 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
7. Tampa Bay (86pts, 5 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
8. Montreal (86pts, 5 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
9. Toronto (84pts, 6 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON
10. NY Islanders (84pts, 6 GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ
11. Carolina (84pts, 5 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA

Dropping the ball

I was thinking of a more colorful title to this post, one that a manager at work uses for what just happened in the Canes/Leafs game tonight, but this will do nicely. I stopped actively watching when it became 5 to 1. I mean, the game was on, but it was over in the second. I can't even tell what in the hell they were thinking out there. The Leafs were prepared to win and the Canes were not.

Tampa lost in regulation, Montreal beat the Rangers (again, in regulation) and the Islanders lost. What does that mean? It's still a big freakin' mess... The Canes drop out of the playoffs into 9th, Toronto moves up one, and the Isles make life harder for themselves.

3. Atlanta (88pts, 6 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. NY Rangers (87pts, 5 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
7. Tampa Bay (86pts, 5 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
8. Montreal (86pts, 5 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
9. Carolina (84pts, 6 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
10. Toronto (84pts, 6 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON
11. NY Islanders (84pts, 6 GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ

F'n overtime

Rangers beat the Isles in overtime. That's just disappointing. Still, the Canes have the tie-breaker at the moment and Tuesday's matchup against Toronto looms.

3. Atlanta (88pts, 6 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. NY Rangers (87pts, 6 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
7. Tampa Bay (86pts, 6 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
8. Carolina (84pts, 7 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
9. NY Islanders (84pts, 7GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ
10. Montreal (84pts, 6 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
11. Toronto (82pts, 7 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON

Crossroads

This is it - the final stretch. I couldn't make the game tonight - my wife had a baby shower to go to and my son has a double ear infection. Still, I was able to watch everything from here. San Jose is a very scary team and the Canes jumped out on them quick. They blew some easy chances in that rush, including a 2-on-0 with Staal and Cole; they almost came to regret it too.

Still, the guys played a great game when they needed to and got a very crucial two points. Toronto, Philly, and Tampa are up next. Every game is must-win at this point as there is no room for error. The playoffs probably started, in earnest, last week.

If the playoff cutoff projection of 92 points is true, the Canes need to win 4 of their last 7. That's very doable. Let's look at the remaining schedules of everyone involved.

3. Atlanta (88pts, 6 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. Tampa Bay (86pts, 6 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
7. NY Rangers (85pts, 7 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
8. Carolina (84pts, 7 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
9. Montreal (84pts, 6 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
10. NY Islanders (83pts, 8GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ
11. Toronto (82pts, 7 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON

The Islanders and Candiens both have the most difficult roads, both with games remaining against Buffalo and Ottawa. The Isles have two tilts against New Jersey as well, so it's definitely going to be a tough road. The Rangers play both the Islanders and Canadiens twice down the stretch, so it is entirely possible that those three teams will do most of the weeding out amongst themselves.

Atlanta only has three games against any teams in the playoff race, so they should be relatively safe unless they completely implode. Now it comes down to winning the games against non-playoff foes and making the most against your head-to-head matchups.

Boost to morale

John Grahame failed the 25% rule tonight, but the return of Cam Ward (who only had to face 4 of the Caps' 10 shots) and a resurgence early in the third period gave the Canes a needed two points. The Canes remain in 8th place for now, although a regulation loss tonight would have dropped them 11th, below Toronto. The race is incredibly tight, so every point will count from here on out.