Moving on

I thought I would be ready to talk about the Canes/Habs game on Friday by now, but I'm not really. Anger. I didn't get a chance to see the game tonight (I was at a Halloween party), but I do see that the Canes took out their frustrations from Friday today against the Islanders. I'll accept that as the team shifting things back to center and move on.

We're off to see the wizard

Whitney re-signed for three years for around $3.55 millon per. That was quick. He mentioned that it was the easiest negotiation he had been involved with and he probably could have done it without his agent. That's always nice to hear.

I've been watching as many playoff games as possible in the meantime. When the Canes aren't directly involved, I find that I develop my favorites somewhat organically. I watch several games and discover who I am cheering for. I was cheering for Vancouver and Pittsburgh so far. That's not to say those are my Finals picks, but those are the teams I have been pulling for. I'm watching Buffalo and the Islanders right now and I haven't quite picked one yet; the same goes for the Rangers and Thrasher - my heart's just not in it. I have a soft spot for Nashville, so I'll be keeping an eye on their series with San Jose too.

Playoff Picks - Round 1

Eastern Conference
Buffalo (1) vs Ny Islanders (8) - Buffalo in 5
New Jersey (2) vs Tampa (7) - Tampa in 7
Atlanta (3) vs NY Rangers (6) - NY Rangers in 6
Ottawa (4) vs Pittsburgh (5) - Pittsburgh in 6

Western Conference
Detroit (1) vs Calgary (8) - Calgary in 7
Anaheim (2) vs Minnesota (7) - Anaheim in 6
Vancouver (3) vs Dallas (6) - Vancouver in 5
Nashville (4) vs San Jose (5) - San Jose in 6

Revised scenario

We have to take everything into account to determine our real chances; most importantly, tie breakers. Atlanta has actually clinched, despite no official designation. If they dropped their last three games and Toronto won their last three, they would be tied with 41 wins. Atlanta gained more points in the head-to-heads, so they win that tie-breaker and are in.

Solid
NY Rangers - Four points ahead and winning the tie-breaker against Toronto with 3 to play. The magic number for them is 2. It would take a complete meltdown for them not to make it.

Strong
Tampa Bay Lightning - Three points up with three to play. It gets a bit more dicey for the Bolts. They also have the tie-breaker over the Leafs, so their magic number is 3. Their last three are against the Canes, Panthers, and Thrashers. It's not out of the realm of possibility for them to lose their last three - the Canes are desperate, the Panthers are playing very well, and Atlanta is headed into the franchise's first post-season appearance and want to do well.

The Scrum
Montreal Canadiens - One point up with three to go, they are in the thick of it. They play Boston, the Rangers, and Toronto to close the season. Their biggest advantage? The large number of wins is the first tie-breaker.

Toronto Maple Leafs - One point back (effectively two) with three to go. They play Philly, the Isles, and Les Habs to finish the season. Their low win total is a liability for tie-breakers, so they need to win the spot outright.

Carolina Hurricanes - Two points back (effectively three), three games to go. They also lose the main tie-breaker with Montreal, so they need to get three more points than the Canadiens and two more than the Leafs to qualify. They finish with Tampa, Atlanta, and Florida. The win last night gave them a burst of life that will hopefully become a win streak. They still need some help. Luckily, the two teams they are chasing play head-to-head to finish the season. It may come down to that.

NY Islanders - Four points down, four to go. They face the Rangers, Toronto, Philly, and New Jersey. That's no easy path and they're already in a tailspin because of their goalie situation. They need wins and help.

F'n overtime

Rangers beat the Isles in overtime. That's just disappointing. Still, the Canes have the tie-breaker at the moment and Tuesday's matchup against Toronto looms.

3. Atlanta (88pts, 6 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. NY Rangers (87pts, 6 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
7. Tampa Bay (86pts, 6 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
8. Carolina (84pts, 7 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
9. NY Islanders (84pts, 7GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ
10. Montreal (84pts, 6 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
11. Toronto (82pts, 7 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON

Crossroads

This is it - the final stretch. I couldn't make the game tonight - my wife had a baby shower to go to and my son has a double ear infection. Still, I was able to watch everything from here. San Jose is a very scary team and the Canes jumped out on them quick. They blew some easy chances in that rush, including a 2-on-0 with Staal and Cole; they almost came to regret it too.

Still, the guys played a great game when they needed to and got a very crucial two points. Toronto, Philly, and Tampa are up next. Every game is must-win at this point as there is no room for error. The playoffs probably started, in earnest, last week.

If the playoff cutoff projection of 92 points is true, the Canes need to win 4 of their last 7. That's very doable. Let's look at the remaining schedules of everyone involved.

3. Atlanta (88pts, 6 GR) - FLA, TOR, BOS, WAS, CAR, TB
6. Tampa Bay (86pts, 6 GR) - FLA, CAR, WAS, CAR, FLA, ATL
7. NY Rangers (85pts, 7 GR) - NYI, MON, PHI, TOR, NYI, MON, PIT
8. Carolina (84pts, 7 GR) - TOR, PHI, TB, FLA, TB, ATL, FLA
9. Montreal (84pts, 6 GR) - NYR, OTT, BUF, BOS, NYR, TOR
10. NY Islanders (83pts, 8GR) - NYR, NJ, BUF, OTT, NYR, TOR, PHI, NJ
11. Toronto (82pts, 7 GR) - CAR, ATL, PIT, NYR, PHI, NYI, MON

The Islanders and Candiens both have the most difficult roads, both with games remaining against Buffalo and Ottawa. The Isles have two tilts against New Jersey as well, so it's definitely going to be a tough road. The Rangers play both the Islanders and Canadiens twice down the stretch, so it is entirely possible that those three teams will do most of the weeding out amongst themselves.

Atlanta only has three games against any teams in the playoff race, so they should be relatively safe unless they completely implode. Now it comes down to winning the games against non-playoff foes and making the most against your head-to-head matchups.

Disappointing

Another blown third period lead and the Canes find themselves out of the playoff picture. It was truly a tale of two halves as the Canes were in control up until they actually took the lead. Ottawa absolutely dominated the latter half of the game, piling up an impressive shot count, battering the Canes into submission. Once they took the lead late in the third, I never got the impression that the Canes were going to tie it up. I hoped, but it never looked like a hope with anything to back it up.

You have to give credit to Ottawa for doing what they needed to do, but the Canes let them do it and the only ones to blame are in the mirror. No real action from the Canes at the trading deadline today, so this is what they've got to work with. The teams around them, fighting for spots, made some serious moves. Most notably the Islanders, who with a win tonight supplanted the Canes for the final playoff spot. The guys need to find that fire, that killer instinct, that they had all of last season.

The best player on the ice for the Canes tonight was, strangely, Josef Vasicek. He seemed to play with a purpose and determination that the rest of the team lacked at times. I don't know why he seems to bring intensity when the rest of the team does not, but it's always something I noticed of him over the years. That's the primary reason he led the team in points several years back.

Timing

If the Canes had to choose a pivotal game to win, this was the one. Not only are the Canes competing directly with the Habs for a playoff spot, but as luck would have it, Atlanta and the Islanders lost tonight and Tampa is in a dog fight with Florida at the moment (4-4 at the moment. 5-4 Florida win in OT, that's something).

Brind'Amour and Ward were on fire tonight. Ward was rock solid early on and basically kept the Canes in it before the offense kicked into gear. I enjoyed the game thoroughly from both sides - there was a lot of flow and back and forth action. Montreal is some kind of snake bitten right now and their fans can't be feeling comfortable with this state of affairs, especially with Huet going into surgery.

One of these days

One of these days I'll actually get to see a whole hockey game. Life has been crazy and I have not been able to watch enough hockey in order to intelligently (or otherwise) comment on what's going on. I'm not going to even make the next two Hurricanes home games for a variety of reasons.

Lots of things going on though in hockey land. The Hurricanes dropped one to the mighty Sabres and then lost in overtime to the frickin' Islanders? I didn't see that game because I was at the Lion King with the family. See? Always an excuse. Anyway, the fallout of the debacle that is the Philadelphia Flyers finally came to a head with the resignation of Bobby Clark and the firing of Ken Hitchcock. It's kind of shocking to just see a total explosion of that magnitude this early in the season, but I guess stranger things have happened.