Revised scenario

We have to take everything into account to determine our real chances; most importantly, tie breakers. Atlanta has actually clinched, despite no official designation. If they dropped their last three games and Toronto won their last three, they would be tied with 41 wins. Atlanta gained more points in the head-to-heads, so they win that tie-breaker and are in.

Solid
NY Rangers - Four points ahead and winning the tie-breaker against Toronto with 3 to play. The magic number for them is 2. It would take a complete meltdown for them not to make it.

Strong
Tampa Bay Lightning - Three points up with three to play. It gets a bit more dicey for the Bolts. They also have the tie-breaker over the Leafs, so their magic number is 3. Their last three are against the Canes, Panthers, and Thrashers. It's not out of the realm of possibility for them to lose their last three - the Canes are desperate, the Panthers are playing very well, and Atlanta is headed into the franchise's first post-season appearance and want to do well.

The Scrum
Montreal Canadiens - One point up with three to go, they are in the thick of it. They play Boston, the Rangers, and Toronto to close the season. Their biggest advantage? The large number of wins is the first tie-breaker.

Toronto Maple Leafs - One point back (effectively two) with three to go. They play Philly, the Isles, and Les Habs to finish the season. Their low win total is a liability for tie-breakers, so they need to win the spot outright.

Carolina Hurricanes - Two points back (effectively three), three games to go. They also lose the main tie-breaker with Montreal, so they need to get three more points than the Canadiens and two more than the Leafs to qualify. They finish with Tampa, Atlanta, and Florida. The win last night gave them a burst of life that will hopefully become a win streak. They still need some help. Luckily, the two teams they are chasing play head-to-head to finish the season. It may come down to that.

NY Islanders - Four points down, four to go. They face the Rangers, Toronto, Philly, and New Jersey. That's no easy path and they're already in a tailspin because of their goalie situation. They need wins and help.